Montero and the M's Future

The Mariners are in a bad place. That is not news to anybody. Saying their offense has been putrid the last two seasons is like saying milk is a dairy product. On the other hand their pitching (doesn’t hurt to pitch in Safeco) has been one of the best in the majors, which made them look much more competitive than they really were in 2009. They are not expected to be competitive next year and with Pujols and Wilson joining an already good Angels team, plus the back-to-back AL champs in the division it does not look like they will be competitive for a while.

The trade of Pineda for Montero surprised me because I did not think the M’s would trade Pineda anytime soon. I actually thought it was more likely they would trade Felix. At first glance I did not like the trade because Pineda has got great stuff and had a great rookie season. Montero has been a top prospect for a few years now and seemingly cannot play catcher at the major league level. But looking at this trade I think it is a good trade for the M’s and will make them competitive much sooner than if they stood pat.

Here is my reasoning – and I understand a lot needs to happen for this to be the case, but as a Royals fan I have to think optimistically to survive.

Although the Mariners lose a potential ace they gain a potential HR king, who knows how to get on base. They’re rotation takes a hit, but their offense improves a lot with this trade (potentially, of course). I think they strengthen their weakness more than they hinder their strength. With Montero added to their offense they have a solid offensive core for the future. Ackley could be a potential All-Star at 2B and a great #2 or 3# hitter, Montero has been compared to Miguel Cabrera and could be an All-Star and clean-up hitter. Justin Smoak has not been great yet, but he is still young and has shown potential as long as he can stay healthy. That could be a very formidable 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 for the next 4 years. It is not as deadly as the Rangers power hitters or Angles, but I honestly think it could be in 3 years.

This trade will not improve the Mariners chances next year or in two years. But for the long haul an everyday hitter is more valuable than a every fifth day starter.

The key word in all of this is potential, which truly means nothing until potential becomes reality. The trade could be terrible and put the M’s even further in the hole, but it could also give the M’s one of the best hitters in the majors. If M’s fans are patient, I think this trade will look good in a few years. It probably will not look good this season, so my word of advice is to not boo Montero every time he strikes out or makes an error in the field. Hope in his potential - and while you are at it  hope Pineda takes some steps backwards.

And if you really want to dream and can live with Montero behind the plate, then I think the M’s should go in for Prince Fielder. Before this trade I thought Fielder coming to the M’s would be a bad idea because he would not have enough offense surrounding him, but now I think it would be a great pick-up. A lineup with Ichiro, Ackley, Montero, Fielder, Smoak, Carp, Figgins, etc. is a huge improvement over what they had yesterday. Plus, they have one of the best pitchers in baseball with Felix and a bevy of other pitchers waiting in the wings to make this team actually competitive in the next few years, and potentially (yes, potentially) a team that could compete in the next two years. Picking up Fielder for the M’s could make the AL West one of the most competitive divisions in baseball for the next 5 years.

You might think I’m crazy (and I might be), but I think this trade will work out very well for the Mariners and that they should call up Boras and bring the Big Vegetarian to Seattle.